The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. 2012; Meshesha et al. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. 5.3.2. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. ; ed. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. 2013). Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. 2017a, 2017b). In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. 2015). Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. 2010 ). Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. 2013; Irannezhad et al. 2005). The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. **10% level of significance. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. 2016). 2016). 2015; Pingale et al. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). As already explained. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. This Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. 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